the Outsider - PSE Points to Ponder

  We’ve been blogging for free. If you enjoy our content, consider supporting us! Disclaimer:  This is for informational purposes and is  not  investment advice. Figures are taken from company disclosures and exchange data; valuation ratios include the author’s calculations based on cited inputs. By the time RL Commercial REIT (RCR) closed the third quarter of 2025, it had become something rare in the Philippine REIT space: a truly multi-asset platform with a portfolio that now spans both offices and malls across key urban nodes. And yet, buried inside the good news is the market’s perennial discomfort with REIT growth: dilution first, accretion later—if management executes.   A ₱30.7B infusion—and the unavoidable math of dilution The defining event of the quarter was RCR’s nine-mall infusion via a property-for-share swap valued at ₱30.6749 billion , paid by issuing 3.834 billion new shares (SEC approval dated September 5, 2025 ). That transaction dramatica...

  We’ve been blogging for free. If you enjoy our content, consider supporting us! Disclaimer: This is for informational purposes and is not investment advice. Figures are taken from company disclosures and exchange data; valuation ratios include the author’s calculations based on cited inputs. A liquor distributor with momentum—at least in the numbers The Keepers Holdings’ 9M 2025 report (ending Sept. 30, 2025 ) reads like a company still riding demand rather than being dragged by it: net sales rose 14.4% to ₱13.39B , and net income increased 12.0% to ₱2.43B . Management pins the growth on a 16% increase in cases sold , with Brandy doing the heavy lifting— about 80% of sales value and 84% of volume . For investors who view KEEPR as a “steady compounder” in consumer staples distribution, those are the kinds of broad-based numbers that justify attention. But as always, the headline hides the seams—and this quarter’s seams show up in margin texture, cost creep, and FX noise.  ...

We’ve been blogging for free. If you enjoy our content, consider supporting us! For years, the market has been happy to treat RFM as a steady, cash-generating staples company that also knows how to return money to shareholders—sometimes aggressively. The proof is in the paper trail: in 2025 alone, the company declared ₱1.5 billion in total dividends (₱0.44517/share), a headline-friendly yield that made income investors sit up straight.  But a subtler—and more consequential—story is now emerging from the footnotes and forward-looking statements: Joey Concepcion, the country’s best-known entrepreneurship advocate, is steering RFM toward a more overtly entrepreneurial posture in capital allocation—spending on capacity and modernization rather than leaving too much cash parked in securities.   From “Treasury Mindset” to “Founder Mindset” Concepcion has long worn two hats: the CEO of RFM and the founding trustee behind Go Negosyo , the country’s most prominent pro-entrepreneurs...

We’ve been blogging for free. If you enjoy our content, consider supporting us! In the quiet corner of the Philippine market where education stocks trade more like utility shares than growth rockets, two names keep resurfacing in income investors’ watchlists: Far Eastern University (FEU) and Centro Escolar University (CEU) . Their latest interim numbers (six months ended Nov. 30, 2025 ) show something that may surprise casual observers: both are running at nearly the same net margin , yet the market prices them—and their dividends—very differently.  Same margins, different narratives FEU reported ₱2.52 billion in revenues for the first half, up 8% year-on-year , powered by strong intake and retention across its campuses and affiliate schools. Yet earnings slipped modestly: net income fell 3% to ₱635.0 million , and management was explicit about why—operating expenses grew faster ( +11% ) as the group spent on faculty development, data and digital systems, program expansion, and ...

  We’ve been blogging for free. If you enjoy our content, consider supporting us! Victorias Milling Company (VMC) just delivered the kind of headline that usually excites the market: revenues surged . But if you read past the topline, the quarter is really a case study in something investors underestimate until it bites— margin compression . In the three months ended November 30, 2025 , VMC reported consolidated revenue of ₱3.235 billion , up from ₱2.511 billion a year earlier. Yet net income slid to ₱161.5 million from ₱367.9 million , and EPS fell to ₱0.03 from ₱0.07 . The company’s own management discussion captures the paradox: strong sales growth masking “significant operational challenges” that squeezed profitability.  The anatomy of the squeeze Margin compression is not a mystery here—it’s arithmetic. VMC’s cost of sales and services expanded to ₱2.934 billion from ₱2.095 billion , outpacing the revenue gain. That pushed gross profit down to ₱301.2 million from ₱41...

  We’ve been blogging for free. If you enjoy our content, consider supporting us! Tony Tan Caktiong doesn’t need to envy Enrique Razon. He needs to copy the part investors reward: high-quality international earnings. There’s a popular shorthand in Philippine equities: “international expansion = premium valuation.” But the market’s latest verdict on ICTSI and Jollibee Foods Corporation (JFC) suggests something more precise—almost unforgivingly so. Investors aren’t paying for international presence. They’re paying for the quality of international earnings. And right now, ICTSI’s overseas footprint looks like a cash machine; JFC’s looks like a work in progress—still impressive in reach, but uneven in profitability and heavier in financial baggage. Start with the scoreboard investors see before anything else: market value. As of early January 2026, the Philippine Stock Exchange data show ICTSI at roughly ₱1.217 trillion in market capitalization, while JFC sits around ₱205.5 billi...

  We’ve been blogging for free. If you enjoy our content, consider supporting us! Why ICTSI’s operating results explain its “most valuable company” status If you want a clean, almost textbook explanation of why the stock market crowns certain firms with outsized valuations, look at ICTSI’s latest operating scorecard . In a market where many businesses are still hostage to domestic cycles, ICTSI is being valued like a global infrastructure franchise —because that is precisely what its results reveal.  As of early January 2026, the Philippine Stock Exchange’s own stock data page shows ICTSI’s market capitalization at roughly ₱1.217 trillion .  The business press has likewise described ICTSI as the most valuable company on the PSE, citing a market cap of ₱1.12 trillion. The question isn’t merely how it reached that milestone; it’s why investors believe the value is durable . The answer lies in the operating math: volumes are rising, pricing is firm, margins are elite, ...