the Outsider - PSE Points to Ponder

  Universal Robina Corporation, one of the Philippines’ biggest branded food-and-beverage groups, turned in the sort of year that looks respectable from a distance and more awkward up close. Revenue rose to ₱168.0 billion in 2025, up 3.8% from the year before, suggesting that demand for snacks, beverages, and pantry staples remained intact. But operating income slipped 3.1% to ₱16.13 billion , while net income attributable to equity holders fell to ₱10.20 billion and earnings per share dropped to ₱4.77 from ₱5.39 . The broad impression was of a company that could still sell, but was finding it harder to turn those sales into clean, rising profit.  That tension showed up most starkly in cash. URC’s net cash provided by operating activities fell to ₱11.27 billion in 2025 from ₱18.98 billion in 2024—a decline of roughly 41% . The immediate temptation is to blame the collapsing profitability. Yet that would miss the more revealing part of the story. The bigger hit came fr...

The feud now spilling across LPZ, ABS, ROCK and FGEN is not merely a family quarrel; it is a corporate-governance issue at the top of listed companies. The Lopez family’s dispute has ceased to look like a private quarrel and begun to resemble a public-markets problem. ABS-CBN itself has said that this is “a family dispute and should remain so” and that it should not be fought in public. Yet it is being fought in public — through statements, counter-statements and litigation that now spill across companies connected to the group.  That matters because these are not merely family assets. Lopez Holdings, First Philippine Holdings, First Gen, Rockwell Land and ABS-CBN are all publicly listed companies , each with minority shareholders who did not sign up to become spectators in a dynastic power struggle. Public reporting shows that the conflict is no longer confined to the private holding company. It has extended into ABS-CBN, where the company confirmed that one director proposed a sh...

  In the world of listed utilities, dividend policy is often sold as a kind of promise: regular, predictable, almost mechanical. Aboitiz Power Corporation (AP) has such a promise. Its stated regular dividend policy is to distribute 50% of the previous year’s reported net income after tax —not core earnings, not EBITDA, and certainly not management’s preferred adjusted profit measure. That distinction, unremarkable in fat years, became the central drama of AP’s 2025 results. The company’s core net income after tax came in at roughly ₱33.1 billion , only slightly below 2024, yet reported net income fell to about ₱19.5 billion , largely because of a ₱13.5 billion to ₱13.9 billion impairment related to GNPower Mariveles . The dividend policy, in other words, ran directly into accounting reality. That collision matters because a payout policy tied to reported profit is less forgiving than one anchored to “core” earnings or free cash flow. A non-cash impairment may not immediately drain...

  For companies in telecoms, maturity is usually easy to spot. Growth slows, capital spending eases, management learns the language of “harvest”, and investors are offered the consolations of yield. Converge, the Philippine broadband operator, is not there yet. Its 2025 annual report instead depicts a business that is doing many things right—growing revenues, adding customers, keeping margins sturdy, and paying down debt—while still behaving less like a cash-yielding utility and more like a builder of digital infrastructure. That distinction matters. In 2025 Converge generated record consolidated revenues of ₱44.8bn , up 10.2% from the previous year, while EBITDA rose 10.0% to ₱27.0bn and net income climbed 9.6% to ₱11.9bn ; EBITDA margin remained a lofty 60.4% , and management highlighted an industry-leading 17.7% return on invested capital . Those are not the numbers of a company losing operational discipline. They are the numbers of one that appears to be executing well. The...

  Flush with cash, light on debt, and generous to shareholders, SPC Power has begun to look less like a cyclical utility and more like a yield vehicle with optionality. The question is whether it can keep paying like one while also reinventing itself for the next phase of the Philippine power market. SPC Power’s 2025 annual report tells a story that investors in mature power businesses particularly enjoy: a company whose earnings rose sharply, whose cash swelled, and whose board remained unabashedly willing to return money to shareholders. On the numbers alone, the case is easy to sketch. At the group level, total comprehensive income rose 42.3% in 2025 to ₱2.224bn, while earnings per share climbed to ₱1.49 from ₱0.99 a year earlier, and return on equity improved to 19.7% from 13.9%. At the parent-company level, net income reached ₱2.079bn, up from ₱1.428bn in 2024 and just ₱303m in 2023. What makes those results especially striking is that they were not driven by a booming top lin...

In the Lopez empire, the better balance-sheet story still comes with a warning label In Philippine capitalism, families do not merely own companies; they curate ecosystems. That makes the latest lesson from the Lopez orbit unusually instructive. On one side sits Rockwell Land , the group’s polished property arm, which delivered rising earnings in 2025 and expanded its commercial footprint with the ₱21.6 billion acquisition of 74.8% of Alabang Commercial Corporation (ACC) . On the other sits ABS-CBN , another Lopez-controlled company, still haggling with lenders over waivers, maturities and covenant relief after years of losses and a balance sheet weakened by the loss of its broadcast franchise. Together, the two suggest a truth financiers know well: within a conglomerate, trouble rarely spreads legally—but it often spreads psychologically.  Rockwell’s 2025 results looked, at first glance, reassuringly robust. Net income rose 29% to ₱5.3 billion , revenues increased 4% to ₱20.9 bill...

A good stock exchange does not merely list companies. It disciplines them. That is why First Gen’s recent clarification on its agreements with Prime Infrastructure should alarm anyone who cares about Philippine capital markets. The company has now confirmed that its definitive agreements contain “Change of Management Control” provisions that could force it to sell its hydropower stake at a 25% discount—worth about ₱15.5 billion —and, if that right is exercised, could also expose its remaining gas-plant stake to a further ~₱8 billion discount. That is not gossip. It is a quantified, public admission of a contingent loss with potentially massive consequences for shareholders. Once a listed company itself can put a peso figure on a governance-triggered downside of that scale, the matter ceases to be a private dispute and becomes a capital-markets issue. The temptation is to dismiss this as merely another installment in the Lopez family feud. That would be a mistake. First Gen’s own clari...