the Outsider - PSE Points to Ponder

The Lopez family’s listed holding company has, over little more than a decade, transformed ABS-CBN from a fully consolidated operating subsidiary into an associate carried at zero on a consolidated equity-accounting basis — a shift that says as much about accounting architecture as it does about the fall of one of the Philippines’ best-known media groups.   There was a time when ABS-CBN sat squarely inside Lopez Holdings’ numbers. In its 2025 annual report, Lopez Holdings explicitly recalls that ABS-CBN had been treated as a subsidiary in 2012 and prior years , meaning its revenues, costs, debt, and losses flowed line by line through the parent’s consolidated accounts. That changed after the adoption of PFRS 10 , when Lopez Holdings said it reassessed control and concluded that it did not control ABS-CBN but did control First Philippine Holdings. From   January 1, 2013 , the group deconsolidated ABS-CBN and began accounting for it under the equity method .  That accounti...

  For much of the past few years, PhilWeb looked like a company trapped between eras. Its legacy business—built around electronic gaming sites, service-provider arrangements, and venue-linked operations—was still generating cash, but less of it. Revenue fell from ₱816.1m in 2023 to ₱774.6m in 2024 , then again to ₱659.4m in 2025 . EBITDA deteriorated from ₱88.1m in 2023 to ₱51.5m in 2024 and then to just ₱9.3m in 2025 . The company remained loss-making, reporting a net loss of ₱71.8m in 2023 , a far larger ₱599.2m loss in 2024 , and a still substantial ₱211.2m loss in 2025 . By the end of that year, the message from the numbers was plain enough: the old model was not collapsing outright, but it was plainly weakening.  The annual report explains why. Management attributed the decline in 2025 revenue to the closure of non-performing sites, intensifying competition from integrated resort casinos, and the spread of alternative online gaming providers. The figures show that even...

In the business of solar power, one learns quickly that not every dazzling number is created by sunshine alone. Raslag Corp. (ASLAG), a Philippine renewable-energy developer with four solar plants in Pampanga, reported that consolidated net profit surged to ₱509.4m in 2025 from ₱66.0m in 2024 , while revenue climbed to ₱723.7m from ₱438.9m . On the face of it, the result looks like the kind of operating inflection that growth investors dream of: a utility-scale solar platform finally beginning to show the earnings power of its expanding asset base. And indeed, part of the surge was operationally real. Raslag’s RASLAG-4 solar plant , with a capacity of 36.646 MWp , became a meaningful earnings contributor in 2025 after commercial operations began during the year; the company also expanded contracted sales through power-supply agreements, most notably the 10-year, 15MW PSA with PELCO I , which pushed contracted capacity to roughly 80% . Combined with a larger fleet—Raslag’s operating por...

The most revealing number in Philippine media is not ratings, subscriber counts, or YouTube views. It is the share of each peso of revenue that survives the direct cost of making and delivering content. By that measure, the country’s two most storied television brands now inhabit very different worlds. In 2025,  GMA7 posted a gross profit margin of 50.97% , down only slightly from 52.37% in 2024. ABS-CBN managed 16.52% , a touch above 16.18% a year earlier. In plain terms, GMA kept a little over 50 centavos of gross profit from every peso of revenue, while ABS kept only about 16.5 centavos .  That gulf is not a quirk of accounting. It is a map of two business models. GMA remains the Philippines’ dominant free-to-air broadcaster, still benefiting from the old but lucrative economics of mass television: national reach, ratings leadership, and an advertising machine that continues to throw off high-margin revenue. Its 2025 consolidated revenue rose to about ₱18.12bn , while gr...

  For years, GMA Network looked like the great exception in Philippine television: the dominant free-to-air broadcaster, the perennial ratings leader, and a company whose dividends could make even indifferent investors pay attention. Yet its 2025 annual report suggests that the broader malaise afflicting television is no longer merely an industry abstraction. It is showing up in GMA7’s own numbers—most clearly in the slow erosion of its core recurring television advertising business , the economic engine that still powers the company.  That matters because television is not collapsing in one dramatic lurch. It is being worn down by habit. Filipino audiences are spending more time online, on social platforms, and with streaming and short-form video, even as broadcasters continue to command mass reach. Dentsu’s 2025 media trends report says 90% of Filipinos use the internet daily and 82% use social media every day , while broader industry analysis points to digital media taking...

The striking thing about Shell Philippines’ 2025 performance is not that it sold less. It did. Net sales fell 5.1% to ₱231.1bn  from ₱243.6bn a year earlier, as lower pump prices pulled revenue down. What matters is what happened next: gross profit still rose 2% to ₱22.7bn , net income jumped 68.7% to ₱2.11bn , core earnings climbed 27.6% to ₱3.34bn , and EBITDA increased 8.8% to ₱11.99bn . For a company in a notoriously thin-margin, hypercompetitive business, this was not a mere cyclical rebound. It was evidence of a business that had become more disciplined, more selective, and—most importantly—more financially coherent. That coherence is easiest to see in cash. Shell Pilipinas generated ₱10.69bn in operating cash flow in 2025, up from ₱7.47bn in 2024, and swung to a free-cash-flow surplus of ₱2.1bn , from a ₱1.6bn deficit the year before. Management attributed the improvement to tighter inventory control, better logistics, stricter working-capital discipline, and more select...

  In corporate finance, there is a simple rule: when a firm’s overheads exceed its gross profit, survival depends not on operations but on patience. By 2025, ABS‑CBN had crossed that line. The company reported a gross profit margin of 16.52% , producing gross profit of roughly ₱2.6 billion on consolidated revenues of ₱15.85 billion , even as revenues declined 9% year‑on‑year . Against this, administrative, corporate, and support costs remained structurally larger—helping drive a net loss of ₱4.72 billion and a net income margin of –29.76% for the year . In a normal business, that arithmetic ends the discussion. Yet ABS‑CBN continues to operate, raising a different question: for how long will its financiers—among them institutions associated with the Aboitizes and the Ayalas—continue to forbear? A Cost Base Built for a Bigger Company ABS‑CBN’s overhead problem is not subtle. The firm remains profitable at the gross level, but general and administrative expenses, together with per...