the Outsider - PSE Points to Ponder

  We’ve been blogging for free. If you enjoy our content, consider supporting us! Disclaimer:  This is for informational purposes and is  not  investment advice. Figures are taken from company disclosures and exchange data; valuation ratios include the author’s calculations based on cited inputs. There’s a familiar scene in every telecom boardroom: a CFO pointing to a clean dividend slide while the network team flips to a map full of red zones—coverage gaps, congestion pockets, fiber buildouts, and the next wave of equipment refresh. The dividend slide always looks tidy. The map never does. PLDT’s FY2025 results delivered a dividend story that sounds comforting: the company generated ₱98.738B in operating cash flow and spent ₱60.336B on capex, leaving a healthy cushion before shareholder payouts. On paper, that’s the kind of year that lets management talk about “sustainability” with a straight face—especially with EBITDA at ₱111.231B and an ~52% margin that stil...

  We’ve been blogging for free. If you enjoy our content, consider supporting us! Disclaimer:  This is for informational purposes and is  not  investment advice. Figures are taken from company disclosures and exchange data; valuation ratios include the author’s calculations based on cited inputs. When crude oil prices surge, the market reflex is to lump “oil companies” into one bucket and assume they all benefit. Petron doesn’t fit that template. Petron is not an upstream producer that profits directly from higher crude prices; it is primarily a refiner and fuel marketer , meaning its economics hinge on refining margins (“cracks”) , pricing pass‑through, and capital tied up in inventory and receivables—not the crude benchmark alone. That distinction matters because the same crude rally that boosts producers can be a mixed—or even negative—setup for downstream operators like Petron: higher crude can inflate working capital , raise financing needs , and pressure dema...

We’ve been blogging for free. If you enjoy our content, consider supporting us! Disclaimer:  This is for informational purposes and is  not  investment advice. Figures are taken from company disclosures and exchange data; valuation ratios include the author’s calculations based on cited inputs. In hindsight, the most telling part of ICTSI’s growth story is when the breakout began—not in a calm expansion year, but in 2021 , when the global supply chain was still snarled, and the world economy was awkwardly rebooting. That timing matters today, because the current Middle East security and conflict risk is once again pressing on the world’s maritime chokepoints—an old reminder that trade flows don’t just respond to demand, but to route risk .  The “shock-year” inflection: 2021 is where ICTSI’s sharp growth starts ICTSI’s financials show a clear inflection in FY2021 . Revenue from port operations jumped +23.9% to US$1.865 billion , net income attributable to equity ho...

We’ve been blogging for free. If you enjoy our content, consider supporting us! Disclaimer:  This is for informational purposes and is  not  investment advice. Figures are taken from company disclosures and exchange data; valuation ratios include the author’s calculations based on cited inputs. RL Commercial REIT, Inc. (RCR) is entering 2026 with a familiar REIT story—bigger portfolio, higher rents, and another year of heavy cash distributions—yet with a more nuanced market question: will growth remain yield-accretive on a per-share basis as the platform scales via property-for-share swaps? Bigger portfolio, bigger cash engine On the operating line that matters most to income-focused investors—recurring lease revenue—RCR delivered a strong year. Rental income climbed to roughly ₱8.86 billion in 2025, up about 34% from ₱6.61 billion in 2024 , as newly infused assets contributed for longer periods. The portfolio also expanded meaningfully, with nine mall assets infused in 2...

  We’ve been blogging for free. If you enjoy our content, consider supporting us! Disclaimer:  This is for informational purposes and is  not  investment advice. Figures are taken from company disclosures and exchange data; valuation ratios include the author’s calculations based on cited inputs. After spending much of the year grinding sideways, SM Investments Corp. (SM) is beginning to show signs that investors are leaning into the story again.The price is edging higher and the RSI is also turning up —a small but meaningful pairing that often reflects improving conviction rather than a one‑day bounce. This time, though, the uptick isn’t happening in a vacuum. SMIC’s ongoing share buyback adds a second tailwind to the tape : as the company steadily repurchases shares, it can tighten effective supply and reinforce the market’s sense that management is willing to support value during periods of mispricing. In its 17‑Q, SMIC disclosed a board‑approved buyback program ...