the Outsider - PSE Points to Ponder

 Monde Nissin Corporation reported continued pressure on its profit margins for the first nine months of 2025 as soaring edible oil prices weighed on its core branded food business, even as net income rose on cost initiatives and foreign exchange gains. The company’s gross margin slipped to 33.3% from 34.9% a year earlier, with its Asia-Pacific Branded Food & Beverage segment posting a sharper decline to 34.8% . Management attributed the drop to higher palm and coconut oil costs, which offset stable wheat prices and early benefits from price adjustments and cost-saving measures. “Commodity inflation remains a key headwind,” the company said in its quarterly filing, noting that while raw material requirements for 2025 have been secured, volatility could persist into 2026. Despite the margin squeeze, Monde Nissin booked a 9.6% increase in net income to ₱6.67 billion , supported by lower financing costs and a swing to foreign exchange gains. However, cash generation showed signs...

When China Banking Corporation filed its third-quarter report with the SEC this November, the headline number—₱20.23 billion in nine-month net income—looked reassuring. A 10% year-on-year increase in profit is no small feat in a year marked by global volatility and a domestic economy slowing to 4% GDP growth. But as always, the story behind the numbers is where the real insight lies. The Core Strengths China Bank’s core banking engine is humming. Net interest income surged 15.2% to ₱53.5 billion, powered by a 6.2% expansion in loans and an improved net interest margin of 4.58%. These are enviable metrics in a competitive market. Efficiency gains are evident too: the cost-to-income ratio improved to 45% from 48%, signaling disciplined expense management even as the bank invests in technology and talent. Asset quality remains a bright spot. Non-performing loans are steady at 1.6%, and coverage is a robust 123%. Capital ratios—CET1 at 14.97% and total CAR at 15.85%—comfortably clear re...

Shakey’s Pizza Asia Ventures Inc. (PSE: PIZZA) has long been a household name in the Philippines, and its latest quarterly filing shows why: systemwide sales surged 14% to ₱17.7 billion , and net revenue climbed 12% to ₱11.24 billion for the first nine months of 2025. On the surface, this looks like a victory lap for a brand celebrating its 50th year in the country. But dig deeper into the numbers, and a more nuanced story emerges—one of growth bought at a price . The Expansion Gamble Shakey’s is in the middle of an aggressive rollout, adding new stores, renovating existing ones, and expanding its multi-brand portfolio, which includes Peri-Peri Charcoal Chicken and Potato Corner. This strategy is designed to cement its dominance in casual dining and kiosks, but it comes with short-term pain . The company’s gross margin slipped to 22.6% from 24.3% , and operating margin fell to 8.9% , despite double-digit revenue growth. Why? Pre-opening costs and renovation expenses —the unavoida...

  The Weekend Read from the Trading Desk : How upstreaming First Gen’s proceeds to First Philippine Holdings could stabilize ABS‑CBN—and safeguard the conglomerate’s access to bank capital. The moment that changed the calculus When Prime Infrastructure Capital, Inc. reached financial close on November 17–18, 2025, for its ₱50‑billion purchase of a 60% stake in First Gen Corporation’s (FGEN) Batangas gas platform—spanning the Santa Rita, San Lorenzo, San Gabriel, Avion plants and the offshore LNG terminal—the news cycle framed it as an energy transition milestone. But the deal also cracked open a once‑in‑a‑decade capital window for the Lopez Group : with liquidity crystallized at FGEN, the conglomerate can channel cash upstream to First Philippine Holdings (FPH) and redeploy it where reputational risk is highest— ABS‑CBN .  Prime Infra’s majority control across the mid‑stream and downstream gas value chain complements its upstream Malampaya operations, while FGEN retains...

  Asia United Bank (AUB) closed the third quarter of 2025 with a headline that would make any banker proud: ₱9.37 billion in nine-month net income , up 9% year-on-year , and a balance sheet that swelled to ₱417 billion . Loans surged 29% , deposits climbed 19% , and capital ratios remain comfortably above Basel III floors. On paper, it’s a picture of resilience and ambition. But beneath the glossy numbers, there are pressure points investors and industry watchers should not ignore. Margins under strain. AUB’s net interest margin slipped to 5.0% from 5.3% a year ago. Why? Deposit costs jumped 35% , while yields on securities fell 12% . With the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas cutting reserve requirements earlier this year, liquidity is abundant, competition is fierce, and repricing gaps are widening. For a bank that thrives on spread income, this is a structural headwind. Trading gains: friend or fickle? Non-interest income helped cushion the margin squeeze, rising 18% for the nine...

Puregold Price Club, Inc. (PGOLD) has once again demonstrated its resilience in the Philippine retail landscape, posting a net income of ₱7.3 billion  for the first nine months of 2025 , up 5.6% year-on-year . Sales surged 10.6% to ₱168.1 billion , powered by aggressive store expansion and steady same-store sales growth. Yet behind the headline numbers, a closer look at the company’s latest SEC filing reveals operational pressure points that could shape its trajectory into 2026. The Good News: Scale and Margins Hold Puregold’s top line benefited from the full-year impact of 2024 openings and 174 new stores launched in 2025 , including one S&R warehouse. Same-store sales growth was healthy: Puregold +4.8% , S&R +5.4% , signaling consumer stickiness despite inflationary headwinds. Gross margin improved to 18.7% from 18.2% , thanks to supplier rebates and scale efficiencies. Operating income rose 8.2% to ₱11.3 billion , though operating margin slipped slightly to 6.7% ....

  Philippine National Bank (PNB) has delivered a headline that investors love: ₱18.5 billion in net income for the first nine months of 2025 , up 22.9% year-on-year. Capital ratios remain fortress-like, with CET1 at 19.95% and CAR at 20.79% , well above regulatory floors. On the surface, this looks like a bank in peak health. But beneath the glossy earnings lies a story of structural vulnerabilities—issues that could weigh on liquidity, credit resilience, and ultimately, shareholder returns. Liquidity Compression: The Silent Stress PNB’s liquid assets plunged 26% year-to-date , from ₱222.2 billion to ₱164.4 billion. Liquidity ratios deteriorated sharply: liquid assets-to-total assets fell to 19% from 29% , and liquid assets-to-liquid liabilities slid to 24.4%. Deposit liabilities contracted by ₱22.2 billion , with time deposits down 5.5%. In a high-rate environment, shrinking liquidity buffers limit flexibility. Boards typically prioritize cash preservation over payouts when liqui...