the Outsider - PSE Points to Ponder

  We’ve been blogging for free. If you enjoy our content, consider supporting us! Tony Tan Caktiong doesn’t need to envy Enrique Razon. He needs to copy the part investors reward: high-quality international earnings. There’s a popular shorthand in Philippine equities: “international expansion = premium valuation.” But the market’s latest verdict on ICTSI and Jollibee Foods Corporation (JFC) suggests something more precise—almost unforgivingly so. Investors aren’t paying for international presence. They’re paying for the quality of international earnings. And right now, ICTSI’s overseas footprint looks like a cash machine; JFC’s looks like a work in progress—still impressive in reach, but uneven in profitability and heavier in financial baggage. Start with the scoreboard investors see before anything else: market value. As of early January 2026, the Philippine Stock Exchange data show ICTSI at roughly ₱1.217 trillion in market capitalization, while JFC sits around ₱205.5 billi...

  We’ve been blogging for free. If you enjoy our content, consider supporting us! Why ICTSI’s operating results explain its “most valuable company” status If you want a clean, almost textbook explanation of why the stock market crowns certain firms with outsized valuations, look at ICTSI’s latest operating scorecard . In a market where many businesses are still hostage to domestic cycles, ICTSI is being valued like a global infrastructure franchise —because that is precisely what its results reveal.  As of early January 2026, the Philippine Stock Exchange’s own stock data page shows ICTSI’s market capitalization at roughly ₱1.217 trillion .  The business press has likewise described ICTSI as the most valuable company on the PSE, citing a market cap of ₱1.12 trillion. The question isn’t merely how it reached that milestone; it’s why investors believe the value is durable . The answer lies in the operating math: volumes are rising, pricing is firm, margins are elite, ...

We’ve been blogging for free. If you enjoy our content, consider supporting us! By the time the world stopped traveling in 2020, Cebu Pacific had already proven it could win in a tough market. What happened next—grounding, losses, reinvention, and a return to profitability—reads like a case study in crisis finance for airlines. Before the Storm: A Pre‑Pandemic Engine Built for Scale In the years just before COVID‑19, Cebu Pacific (Cebu Air, Inc.) was executing the kind of playbook that separates enduring low‑cost carriers from fare-sale wonders: high load factors, steady volume growth, and disciplined network expansion. In 2018 , the airline carried 20.28 million passengers with an 85% seat load factor , posting ₱74.1 billion in revenues despite sharp headwinds in fuel, currency, and airport constraints. The company remained profitable, even as volatility squeezed margins—an early signal of operating resilience under pressure.  By 2019 , Cebu Pacific’s recovery was emphatic. Pass...

  We’ve been blogging for free. If you enjoy our content, consider supporting us! Century Properties Group (CPG) delivered a commendable earnings print through the first nine months of 2025, with revenue and net income both rising at a healthy clip. But for dividend investors, the more interesting—and more consequential—story sits below the income statement: operating cash flow swung negative, cash balances fell, and the company leaned on working capital and financing flexibility to keep the machine moving. That doesn’t mean dividends are in danger today; it does mean dividend sustainability will be judged less by reported earnings and more by how quickly profits convert into cash over the next few quarters. Earnings: Strong top-line momentum, steady margins, improved net income CPG’s 9M 2025 revenues rose 15.2% year-on-year to ₱12.312B , driven primarily by higher real estate sales recognized during the period. Net income climbed even faster: ₱2.105B , up about 19% YoY , reflectin...

  We’ve been blogging for free. If you enjoy our content, consider supporting us! When Jollibee Foods Corp. (JFC) told the market it plans to spin off its international operations and list them in the United States by late 2027, it triggered exactly the reaction you’d expect from a headline built for screens: a sudden repricing, a rush of “value-unlock” hot takes, and a burst of speculative enthusiasm. But strip away the adrenaline, and the core question is blunt: what, economically, changes today? The uncomfortable answer—one that investors may revisit once the excitement fades—is: almost nothing.   The announcement is loud; the impact is deferred JFC’s disclosure is explicit about two things that should temper any “game-changer” framing. First, the plan is “preliminary” and subject to change , with “no assurance” as to final terms, timing, or even completion. Second, the timeline is long— targeted for late 2027 —and depends on market conditions, diligence, and regulatory ...

  We’ve been blogging for free. If you enjoy our content, consider supporting us! Did VLL wait for notes financing to clear before declaring the common dividend? VLL never explicitly said, “We waited for financing,” but the timing is telling . On December 26, 2025 , the company disclosed it had obtained a five‑year corporate notes facility of ₱13.61 billion and made an initial drawdown of up to ₱7.22 billion at a fixed rate of 7.8947% . Two trading days later, on December 29, 2025 , VLL disclosed the board’s approval of a “2025 Cash Dividend” for common shares of ₱0.1176 per share , payable February 6, 2026 (record date Jan 16, 2026 ).  That sequence fits a common boardroom pattern in leveraged, capital‑intensive sectors: secure refinancing visibility first , then approve discretionary distributions. The notes facility was described as funding for refinancing existing or maturing obligations and general corporate purposes , which is precisely the kind of year‑end liquidity...

We’ve been blogging for free. If you enjoy our content, consider supporting us! Rockwell Land’s move to acquire a controlling stake in Alabang Town Center (ATC) can be read as more than a trophy purchase. It looks like a deliberate attempt to scale “institutional-grade” leasing assets quickly —the kind that can later be monetized, recycled, or packaged in a market increasingly shaped by REIT-style capital recycling. In Rockwell’s own words, the acquisition is about expanding its footprint in a prime location with “long-term redevelopment opportunities,” and it adds 137,000 sqm of gross leasable area— a 58% expansion of Rockwell’s retail and office portfolio. That scale statistic matters because REIT capital recycling is ultimately a scale game : the larger and more diversified your stabilized income base, the more credible your future monetization options become—whether through a sponsor-to-REIT injection, a sale to an existing REIT, or a broader “seed-and-spin” strategy. And the Ph...