The Case for a Flat $FLI Dividend in 2026

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Disclaimer: This is for informational purposes and is not investment advice. Figures are taken from company disclosures and exchange data; valuation ratios include the author’s calculations based on cited inputs.

There’s a certain kind of investor who treats a dividend announcement like a weather report: not because surprises never happen, but because most of the time, patterns win. Filinvest Land, Inc. (FLI) looks set to follow its familiar pattern in 2026—keep the cash dividend flat—not because it can’t pay more, but because the company’s operating reality and capital priorities strongly argue for stability over generosity.

Good year, not a “raise-the-dividend” year

FLI’s 2025 results were respectable. The company reported ₱25.90 billion in consolidated revenues and other income, up 6%, while net income after tax rose 4% to ₱4.81 billion—a steady performance given high interest rates and cautious buyers. But that’s exactly the point: steady is not the same as breakout. Dividend increases are easiest when earnings acceleration is obvious, and the balance sheet is not being asked to do heavy lifting. FLI’s 2025 showed resilience, yes—but also showed the continuing tug-of-war between improving operations and higher financing costs.

A quick glance at the 17‑Q reinforces the “steady, not soaring” picture: for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, net income increased 4.99% year-on-year to ₱3.64 billion on ₱18.99 billion in revenues (+7.89%). Those are credible gains. But dividend boards don’t just look at earnings—they look at what’s left after debt service and reinvestment.

The recurring-income engine is improving—but the bill for money is rising

The bright spot in 2025 is the leasing business, especially retail. Retail leasing revenues rose 10% to ₱2.78 billion, driven by higher occupancy—80% in 2025 versus 72% in 2024—with a stronger tenant mix and foot traffic. This matters because recurring income is typically what sustains dividends through cycles. If you’re building a dividend case for FLI, retail’s recovery is the best paragraph in the story. 

But the next paragraph is where dividend enthusiasm cools: the cost of money. In 9M2025, the company’s interest and other finance charges rose 18.83% year-on-year to ₱3.14 billion, and the cushion narrowed—EBITDA-to-interest paid fell to 1.91x from 2.05x. In plain English: even as operations improve, debt service consumes a larger share of operating capacity. That’s not a crisis—but it’s a strong incentive to keep payouts conservative.

Dividend track record: the company already told you its preference

Investors hoping for a 2026 hike should start with the simplest fact: FLI did not raise its dividend in 2025. The company declared a cash dividend of ₱0.05 per share to common shareholders (around ₱1.12 billion total)—the same per-share level as in 2024. That kind of consistency is not an accident; it reflects a board preference for a predictable baseline payout rather than an aggressively rising distribution.

This pattern also aligns with the company’s stated operating context: 2025 was navigated amid elevated rates and changing office dynamics, and management’s commentary emphasizes disciplined execution and resilience—not a pivot to shareholder cash returns. The absence of any dividend-growth messaging matters in itself; companies that intend to raise payouts typically lay the groundwork for a narrative. 

Capacity isn’t the problem—capital allocation is

Here’s the part that confuses many investors: FLI appears to have ample accounting capacity to raise dividends. The 17‑Q shows retained earnings available for dividend declaration of ₱35.61 billion as of September 30, 2025. So why not increase the payout?

Because capacity and willingness are different animals. FLI has consistently earmarked a large portion of retained earnings for expansion, with ₱24.81 billion appropriated for business expansions and project development as of September 30, 2025. And after the reporting date, the board approved adjustments: it reversed ₱1.86 billion in appropriations but also appropriated ₱11.09 billion for various projects—hardly a signal of shifting from reinvestment to payout maximization.

In other words, the company is behaving like a developer that sees 2026 as a year to fund pipeline and strengthen recurring income—not as a year to meaningfully raise shareholder cash distributions.

The bond plan is the loudest “dividend stays flat” signal

If you want one capital-market clue that typically correlates with dividend restraint, it’s this: FLI’s board approved up to ₱11.57 billion in fixed-rate bonds (third tranche under a shelf program), with proceeds intended to refinance existing debt and support capex across core segments. Bond issuance doesn’t automatically preclude a dividend hike—but it does clarify priorities. When management is explicitly raising or refinancing capital to fund projects and optimize the capital structure, boards usually prefer not to simultaneously raise the “permanent” cash obligation that a higher dividend represents.

The bond disclosure also aligns with what the business is saying operationally: 2026 is positioned as an expansion year—new residential launches, mall enhancements, and continued estate integration. Expansion years can be good for long-term value, but they often come with a short-term trade-off: dividends tend to stay steady rather than rise. 

So what is the most likely 2026 dividend outcome?

Put the pieces together, and the most probable scenario is straightforward:

• Earnings grew modestly in 2025, not explosively—good for sustaining dividends, not necessarily for increasing them.
• Finance costs rose sharply, and interest coverage softened—making the board more cautious about higher payouts.
• Dividend behavior already shows a preference for stability (₱0.05/share in both 2024 and 2025).
• Capital allocation is tilted toward reinvestment and project funding, reinforced by retained earnings appropriations and a planned bond raise.

That set of signals doesn’t scream “dividend cut”—far from it. The operating cash picture in 9M2025 was healthy, and liquidity improved by September. But it does point toward the conservative choice: keep the dividend flat, preserve flexibility, and let the expansion program do the heavy lifting for future growth.

What would change the call?

For dividend investors watching for an upside surprise, two developments would matter most:

1. A clear easing in finance-cost pressure—either through lower rates or demonstrably cheaper refinancing that improves coverage.
2. A stronger step-up in recurring income (especially retail and office leasing) that improves cash generation without requiring proportionate new borrowing.

Until those show up in a way that management can confidently underwrite, the safest expectation remains the boring one—FLI’s 2026 dividend most likely stays flat. 

We’ve been blogging for free. If you enjoy our content, consider supporting us!

Disclaimer: This is for informational purposes and is not investment advice. Figures are taken from company disclosures and exchange data; valuation ratios include the author’s calculations based on cited inputs.