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Disclaimer: This is for informational purposes and is not investment advice. Figures are taken from company disclosures and exchange data; valuation ratios include the author’s calculations based on cited inputs.
Philex Mining Corp. (PX) is heading into 2026 with a rare combination of near‑term optimism and familiar operational caution—and the market’s first clear signal of that balancing act came via its latest cash payout. The company declared a ₱ 0.04-per-share cash dividend (about ₱231 million in total), double the ₱ 0.02-per-share cash dividend it declared a year earlier—an upgrade that underscores both earnings momentum and management’s confidence heading into Silangan’s long-awaited start-up window.
A higher dividend, but still a “measured” payout
The headline number is the doubling itself: PX’s board approved a ₱0.04/share dividend payable March 25, 2026 to shareholders on record as of March 10, 2026, aggregating to ₱231 million.
What makes the move notable is that the company had previously declared a ₱0.02/share regular cash dividend in late February 2025 (payable March 2025), which the 3Q2025 quarterly report explicitly references.
Yet even after the step-up, the payout remains conservative relative to profitability. PX reported ₱1.071 billion core net income for full-year 2025, implying the new dividend consumes only a modest slice of core earnings, suggesting management is increasing shareholder returns without compromising flexibility as Silangan approaches commissioning and Padcal undergoes stabilization work.
2025 results: a market-driven rebound more than an operational one
The numbers show why the board felt comfortable paying more. PX booked ₱8.854 billion in operating revenues in 2025 (up from ₱8.183 billion in 2024), while EBITDA rose to ₱2.517 billion, and full-year core net income climbed to ₱1.071 billion.
Management’s own framing is blunt: strong metal prices and improved FX were the main supports, particularly late in the year. The company cited elevated gold and copper prices through 2025 and a more favorable foreign-exchange backdrop in the fourth quarter.
If 2025 had a “tell,” it was the split personality between earnings strength and output softness. PX’s Padcal operation milled slightly less ore year-on-year, while gold and copper grades trended lower toward year-end—a classic late-mine signature. Full-year gold output fell to 24,358 ounces (down from 30,702 ounces in 2024), while copper output ended at 18.155 million pounds, below the prior year’s 19.780 million pounds.
The 3Q2025 quarterly disclosures add texture: through the first nine months, tonnes milled rose slightly, but gold production fell 17%, and copper production fell 3%, largely due to weaker grades and recoveries—problems management explicitly linked to ore sourcing constraints and inefficiencies at an ageing mill plant.
Padcal: operational fragility remains the swing factor
In market terms, PX still trades as a “two‑asset story”: Padcal is the cash engine now, Silangan is the growth engine next. The challenge is that Padcal is increasingly sensitive to downtime and grade variability. Management noted that operational issues “inherent in an ageing mine” persisted into 2026, and disclosed that a problem at the secondary crushing section hurt daily production.
The company’s response is a three‑phase recovery plan:
- stabilize milling throughput via a by-pass crushing line,
- reinforce crushing capacity, and
- steadily raise tonnage by 2Q2026.
This matters for investors because, even in a strong commodity tape, volume and recovery slippage can quietly inflate unit costs and compress margins—especially when fixed costs and sustaining capex remain sticky. PX’s 3Q2025 report acknowledged that despite some equipment arrivals, unscheduled breakdowns of older equipment continued, and the company planned additional replacements to improve fleet availability.
Silangan: the inflection the market has been waiting for
If the dividend signals confidence, the catalyst behind it is arguably Silangan. Management describes the Silangan Project in Surigao del Norte as being in the “final stretch” toward first metal pour by end‑1Q2026, which would mark the start of commercial operations.
The 3Q2025 filing outlines the project’s progression in practical terms—mine development advancing at the production level, process plant construction pushing toward completion/commissioning, and tailings facility readiness scheduled ahead of ore commissioning.
For the market, that timeline is crucial: Silangan’s ramp is expected to bridge the company away from Padcal’s late-life volatility and into a longer-duration copper-gold growth profile.
Dividend doubling: confidence—or simply the cycle smiling?
From a market commentary perspective, the doubling of the dividend is best read as a hybrid signal:
- Yes, it reflects better earnings capacity—2025’s higher core net income and EBITDA make the increase affordable.
- But it also looks intentionally “not aggressive.” The payout level remains moderate relative to core profits, suggesting PX is preserving liquidity for commissioning risks, ramp-up working capital, and Padcal stabilization capex.
Investors should also remember 2025’s profit engine was price leverage, not production strength. Management cited record realized gold prices in 4Q2025 and high copper pricing, while acknowledging lower grades and reduced output—conditions that can reverse if the commodity cycle cools before Silangan reaches stable operations.
What to watch next (the market’s checklist)
1) Confirmation of Silangan’s first metal pour (and early operating metrics). A timeline hit is helpful; a stable ramp is what re-rates.
2) Padcal’s recovery execution. The bypass line and crushing upgrades need to translate into consistent throughput by 2Q2026 as guided.
3) Near‑Padcal exploration progress. PX disclosed that Clifton drilling was placed on hold in 3Q2025 due to surface claimant issues, with negotiations aimed at resumption—an “option value” investors will track for mine-life extensions.
Bottom line
PX’s doubled dividend is a timely headline for income-focused holders, but the deeper message is strategic: shareholders are getting more cash back while the company keeps its powder dry for a crucial operating transition. With Silangan approaching its targeted first metal window and Padcal undergoing a technical recovery program, the next few quarters will determine whether 2025’s earnings strength evolves from a commodity-driven uplift into a durable, multi-asset growth story.
We’ve been blogging for free. If you enjoy our content, consider supporting us!
Disclaimer: This is for informational purposes and is not investment advice. Figures are taken from company disclosures and exchange data; valuation ratios include the author’s calculations based on cited inputs.
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