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Disclaimer: This is for informational purposes and is not investment advice. Figures are taken from company disclosures and exchange data; valuation ratios include the author’s calculations based on cited inputs.
Meralco is doing what mature, cash-generative franchises are supposed to do after a strong year: share more of the spoils. In a board decision dated February 25, 2026, Manila Electric Co. approved a final cash dividend of ₱16.672 per share, payable on April 20, 2026 to shareholders on record as of March 26, 2026.
That final payout brings total dividends declared out of 2025 core consolidated net income (CCNI) to ₱28.00 per share—a level Meralco itself frames as roughly 62.5% of core earnings per share. In other words, the board is telling investors: 2025 was strong enough not only to fund expansion, but also to raise the income stream that has long anchored the stock’s appeal.
And the market is already treating Meralco like a blue-chip utility should be treated in uncertain times: as a premium asset. On the Philippine Stock Exchange’s own data page, MER recently traded around ₱620, with a 52-week high of ₱632 (and an intraday high print shown at ₱638.50 on the same screen). The dividend story, then, lands at a delicate moment—when the stock is priced for near-perfection.
The earnings engine behind the dividend hike
Meralco’s dividend step-up isn’t an act of generosity; it’s the mechanical result of a bigger profit pool and stronger cash earnings.
For full-year 2025, the company reported CCNI up 12% to ₱50.6 billion, with reported net income up 11% to ₱51.1 billion. Importantly for a dividend narrative, core EBITDA rose 15% to ₱86.4 billion—a reminder that the underlying cash-earning capacity expanded alongside accounting profits.
Those numbers matter because Meralco’s own disclosed payout framework is explicitly linked to core earnings: the company states a board-approved dividend policy of regular cash dividends equivalent to 50% of CCNI, plus special dividends determined on a “look-back” basis depending on unrestricted retained earnings and free cash. The year-end payout ratio Meralco cited—about 62.5% of core EPS—signals that management believes 2025’s cash profile can support a payout above the regular baseline.
Meralco’s dividend step-up isn’t an act of generosity; it’s the mechanical result of a bigger profit pool and stronger cash earnings.
For full-year 2025, the company reported CCNI up 12% to ₱50.6 billion, with reported net income up 11% to ₱51.1 billion. Importantly for a dividend narrative, core EBITDA rose 15% to ₱86.4 billion—a reminder that the underlying cash-earning capacity expanded alongside accounting profits.
Those numbers matter because Meralco’s own disclosed payout framework is explicitly linked to core earnings: the company states a board-approved dividend policy of regular cash dividends equivalent to 50% of CCNI, plus special dividends determined on a “look-back” basis depending on unrestricted retained earnings and free cash. The year-end payout ratio Meralco cited—about 62.5% of core EPS—signals that management believes 2025’s cash profile can support a payout above the regular baseline.
A utility that increasingly behaves like a hybrid
The market’s willingness to pay up for MER is rooted in a structural shift: Meralco increasingly looks like a hybrid of regulated stability and competitive growth.
The traditional distribution utility (DU) remains the base—Meralco said the DU contributed 58% of 2025 CCNI (₱29.6 billion)—but the power generation arm (MGen) has grown large enough to command attention, contributing 33% (₱16.8 billion). That is not a rounding error. It is a second earnings engine that investors can underwrite for growth, rather than merely for defensive cash flow.
The company also highlighted that MGen delivered sharply higher energy output and earnings momentum, supported by acquisitions and improved availability, and underscored progress milestones for its renewable buildout—most notably MTerra Solar’s grid connection timeline heading into 2026. This helps explain why Meralco can raise dividends while still spending aggressively: the group is trying to widen its earnings base beyond the DU.
The market’s willingness to pay up for MER is rooted in a structural shift: Meralco increasingly looks like a hybrid of regulated stability and competitive growth.
The traditional distribution utility (DU) remains the base—Meralco said the DU contributed 58% of 2025 CCNI (₱29.6 billion)—but the power generation arm (MGen) has grown large enough to command attention, contributing 33% (₱16.8 billion). That is not a rounding error. It is a second earnings engine that investors can underwrite for growth, rather than merely for defensive cash flow.
The company also highlighted that MGen delivered sharply higher energy output and earnings momentum, supported by acquisitions and improved availability, and underscored progress milestones for its renewable buildout—most notably MTerra Solar’s grid connection timeline heading into 2026. This helps explain why Meralco can raise dividends while still spending aggressively: the group is trying to widen its earnings base beyond the DU.
Cash flow: the quiet enabler
If earnings are the headline, cash flow is the enabler—and Meralco’s interim disclosures show that the cash story remains intact.
In its SEC 17‑Q for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, Meralco reported net income attributable to equity holders up 9% to ₱36.822 billion, with EPS up 9% to ₱32.67. Over the same period, net cash provided by operating activities rose 14% to ₱24.656 billion, while cash and cash equivalents stood at ₱88.220 billion.
This is what dividend investors want to see: profit growth that shows up in operating cash, and a balance sheet with enough liquidity to keep distributions predictable even while capex and project cycles fluctuate.
If earnings are the headline, cash flow is the enabler—and Meralco’s interim disclosures show that the cash story remains intact.
In its SEC 17‑Q for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, Meralco reported net income attributable to equity holders up 9% to ₱36.822 billion, with EPS up 9% to ₱32.67. Over the same period, net cash provided by operating activities rose 14% to ₱24.656 billion, while cash and cash equivalents stood at ₱88.220 billion.
This is what dividend investors want to see: profit growth that shows up in operating cash, and a balance sheet with enough liquidity to keep distributions predictable even while capex and project cycles fluctuate.
The dividend math at today’s prices
At face value, ₱28.00 per share in total 2025 dividends still looks respectable even after the stock’s run. Using a recent trading level near ₱620, that implies a cash yield of roughly 4.5%, before any assumptions about future growth.
That yield—paired with the perception of Meralco as a defensive compounder—helps explain why buyers have remained willing to support the stock at elevated levels. Meralco itself noted that at a ₱574 closing price at end-2025, the dividend yield would have been “close to 5%,” reinforcing the company’s positioning of the payout as meaningful.
At face value, ₱28.00 per share in total 2025 dividends still looks respectable even after the stock’s run. Using a recent trading level near ₱620, that implies a cash yield of roughly 4.5%, before any assumptions about future growth.
That yield—paired with the perception of Meralco as a defensive compounder—helps explain why buyers have remained willing to support the stock at elevated levels. Meralco itself noted that at a ₱574 closing price at end-2025, the dividend yield would have been “close to 5%,” reinforcing the company’s positioning of the payout as meaningful.
But can the share price still grow from all-time highs?
Here is where the narrative becomes more nuanced. When a stock is already near record levels, the next leg up typically requires fresh catalysts—not just validation of what the market already knows.
Here is where the narrative becomes more nuanced. When a stock is already near record levels, the next leg up typically requires fresh catalysts—not just validation of what the market already knows.
What supports further upside
1) Earnings breadth is improving.
The rising contribution from MGen—and the pipeline of new generation assets—creates room for profit growth that is not solely dependent on regulated distribution returns. This matters because investors are more likely to re-rate a utility that can grow earnings through multiple channels.
2) The company is leaning into long-dated growth bets.
Meralco disclosed that consolidated 2025 capex reached ₱108.9 billion, with ₱80.0 billion directed toward MGen’s major renewable buildouts, including the large MTerra Solar project. If those projects ramp on schedule, the market may continue to underwrite premium valuation on the expectation of higher future cash flows.
3) Dividends remain a powerful “support bid.”
A high and visible payout—explicitly tied to core earnings—tends to attract long-only and income funds, particularly when macro conditions turn choppy. Meralco’s stated policy framework and the 2025 payout level reinforce that support.
1) Earnings breadth is improving.
The rising contribution from MGen—and the pipeline of new generation assets—creates room for profit growth that is not solely dependent on regulated distribution returns. This matters because investors are more likely to re-rate a utility that can grow earnings through multiple channels.
2) The company is leaning into long-dated growth bets.
Meralco disclosed that consolidated 2025 capex reached ₱108.9 billion, with ₱80.0 billion directed toward MGen’s major renewable buildouts, including the large MTerra Solar project. If those projects ramp on schedule, the market may continue to underwrite premium valuation on the expectation of higher future cash flows.
3) Dividends remain a powerful “support bid.”
A high and visible payout—explicitly tied to core earnings—tends to attract long-only and income funds, particularly when macro conditions turn choppy. Meralco’s stated policy framework and the 2025 payout level reinforce that support.
What could cap upside (or trigger consolidation)
1) Sales volumes are not accelerating.
Meralco’s DU sales volumes were described as flat in 2025 (53,997 GWh) and flattish in 9M 2025 versus the prior year, with headwinds including weather shifts and structural demand changes such as rooftop solar adoption. A premium-priced stock can tolerate flat volumes, but it becomes more sensitive to any sign that earnings momentum is also flattening.
2) Regulatory uncertainty never goes away for a utility.
Meralco’s 17‑Q enumerates regulatory decisions on tariffs, rate resets, and related processes as key risks. Even if outcomes are ultimately manageable, delays and uncertainty can weigh on sentiment—particularly when valuation is already high.
3) Bigger investments come with bigger financing and execution scrutiny.
Meralco’s interim disclosure shows increased borrowing associated with strategic investments, and the same document discusses covenant compliance and financing structures tied to assets and subsidiaries. In a high-rate environment, the market tends to punish missteps faster—especially on large, multi-year projects.
1) Sales volumes are not accelerating.
Meralco’s DU sales volumes were described as flat in 2025 (53,997 GWh) and flattish in 9M 2025 versus the prior year, with headwinds including weather shifts and structural demand changes such as rooftop solar adoption. A premium-priced stock can tolerate flat volumes, but it becomes more sensitive to any sign that earnings momentum is also flattening.
2) Regulatory uncertainty never goes away for a utility.
Meralco’s 17‑Q enumerates regulatory decisions on tariffs, rate resets, and related processes as key risks. Even if outcomes are ultimately manageable, delays and uncertainty can weigh on sentiment—particularly when valuation is already high.
3) Bigger investments come with bigger financing and execution scrutiny.
Meralco’s interim disclosure shows increased borrowing associated with strategic investments, and the same document discusses covenant compliance and financing structures tied to assets and subsidiaries. In a high-rate environment, the market tends to punish missteps faster—especially on large, multi-year projects.
The market verdict: dividend confidence, priced-in excellence
Meralco’s bigger dividend is a vote of confidence in the durability of its cash flows—a record-year payout backed by record-year earnings. As a piece of shareholder communication, the message is clean: Meralco believes its earnings base—anchored by the DU and increasingly supplemented by generation—can sustain a higher distribution.
But the stock’s proximity to all-time highs changes the investor calculus. With MER recently around ₱620 and near a ₱632 52-week high, the market is already paying for stability and execution. From here, incremental upside is less likely to come from the “utility premium” alone, and more likely to come from project delivery, continued growth in generation earnings, and regulatory clarity that protects the long-term cash machine.
In short: the dividend hike is real and earned—but the stock now needs to keep earning its valuation, quarter after quarter.
We’ve been blogging for free. If you enjoy our content, consider supporting us!
Meralco’s bigger dividend is a vote of confidence in the durability of its cash flows—a record-year payout backed by record-year earnings. As a piece of shareholder communication, the message is clean: Meralco believes its earnings base—anchored by the DU and increasingly supplemented by generation—can sustain a higher distribution.
But the stock’s proximity to all-time highs changes the investor calculus. With MER recently around ₱620 and near a ₱632 52-week high, the market is already paying for stability and execution. From here, incremental upside is less likely to come from the “utility premium” alone, and more likely to come from project delivery, continued growth in generation earnings, and regulatory clarity that protects the long-term cash machine.
In short: the dividend hike is real and earned—but the stock now needs to keep earning its valuation, quarter after quarter.
We’ve been blogging for free. If you enjoy our content, consider supporting us!
Disclaimer: This is for informational purposes and is not investment advice. Figures are taken from company disclosures and exchange data; valuation ratios include the author’s calculations based on cited inputs.
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