Metrobank: A Dividend Anchor Amid Market Turbulence

 

From the Trading Desk. Shares the trading desk is planning to buy and accumulate. 

The Philippine Stock Exchange Index (PSEi) has been battered in recent days, plunging to multi-year lows as investors digested weak GDP growth, peso volatility, and political noise. Last Friday’s close at 5,584.35 marked a sobering reminder of how fragile sentiment can be. But amid the carnage, one question looms large for long-term investors: Is Metrobank (MBT) a buy?

The short answer: Yes—if you’re patient and disciplined.

Why MBT Looks Attractive Now
First, the sell-off was broad-based, not MBT-specific. Financials were dragged down alongside property and consumer names, but Metrobank’s fundamentals remain intact. In fact, the bank posted a record ₱37.28 billion in net income for the first nine months of 2025, with Q3 earnings up 2.6% year-on-year. Loan growth is healthy, non-performing loans are well-covered at 147%, and capital ratios—CET1 at 15.6%—are comfortably above regulatory minimums.

Second, valuation has become compelling. At ₱62–64 per share, MBT trades at roughly 0.8x book value and 6.9x earnings. More importantly for income seekers, its trailing dividend payout of ₱5.00 per share translates to a yield near 8%. That’s a rare find in a market starved for yield.

Risks to Keep in Mind
Of course, the macro backdrop is far from rosy. GDP slowed to 4.0% in Q3, foreign direct investment plunged 40%, and the peso hovers near ₱59 to the dollar. The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas has started easing rates, which could compress margins even as it supports loan growth. Political uncertainty adds another layer of risk.

The Bottom Line
For investors with a long-term horizon and a taste for dividends, MBT offers a compelling case. Accumulating gradually—say, through peso-cost averaging over the next six weeks—can help mitigate volatility. At current levels, you’re being paid handsomely to wait for sentiment and growth to normalize.

In a market gripped by fear, Metrobank stands out as a beacon of stability. Sometimes, the best opportunities emerge when the headlines scream panic.

A practical game plan (for accumulation)

1) Stagger buys (peso‑cost averaging) over 4–6 weeks.
Use ₱62–65 as your initial accumulation zone, add more on weakness closer to ₱60–62 if the index retests lows; trim adds above ₱68–70 unless the macro backdrop improves. This range aligns with last week’s prints and the 52‑week low area. 

2) Target an income anchor, not just price upside.
At ~₱62, the forward yield (assuming ₱5.00/share, including regular + special when declared) is ~8%. 

3) Risk controls.

• Position size: cap MBT at 8–12% of your Philippine equity sleeve to avoid over‑concentration in one bank.
• Re‑evaluate if NPL ratio trends >2% with weaker coverage, or if CET1 slips materially—these would challenge the dividend/valuation thesis. 
• Stay attuned to BSP policy and peso moves; sharp FX stress or unexpected rate hikes could dent sentiment/valuation. 

4) Dividend timing.
Historically, MBT declares semi‑annual payouts (March & September), with specials possible (e.g., ₱2.00 special in March 2025). Buying ahead of the next cycle can lock in yield, but don’t buy just for the ex‑date—prioritize valuation.