the Outsider - PSE Points to Ponder

  We’ve been blogging for free. If you enjoy our content, consider supporting us! Disclaimer:  This is for informational purposes and is  not  investment advice. Figures are taken from company disclosures and exchange data; valuation ratios include the author’s calculations based on cited inputs. Ayala Land Inc.’s decision to materially raise shareholder payouts underscores a quiet but important shift in its investment narrative: from a largely cyclical property developer to a capital‑disciplined platform increasingly anchored by recurring income. Still, while the dividend signal is unequivocally positive, the market is likely to respond with pricing discipline, anchoring the stock to a yield that reflects a premium — not an outlier — over Philippine sovereign bills and bonds. For full‑year 2025, Ayala Land delivered consolidated net income of ₱39.1 billion , with core net income rising 8% year‑on‑year to ₱30.6 billion , despite a still‑uneven residential market. Rev...

We’ve been blogging for free. If you enjoy our content, consider supporting us! Disclaimer:  This is for informational purposes and is  not  investment advice. Figures are taken from company disclosures and exchange data; valuation ratios include the author’s calculations based on cited inputs. Metropolitan Bank & Trust Co. (MBT) is once again signaling balance-sheet confidence—but not haste—through its latest dividend declarations, reinforcing its reputation as a conservative, capital‑first lender in a tightening earnings environment. The bank announced a ₱1.50 per share regular cash dividend alongside a ₱2.00 per share special dividend , both payable on March 26, 2026, bringing total cash distributions for the year to ₱5.00 per share . This maintains a payout structure that has been consistent since 2024: a stable base dividend complemented by a discretionary special payout. Earnings Cover Remains Comfortable Metrobank’s FY2025 net income attributable to equity hol...

  We’ve been blogging for free. If you enjoy our content, consider supporting us! Disclaimer:  This is for informational purposes and is  not  investment advice. Figures are taken from company disclosures and exchange data; valuation ratios include the author’s calculations based on cited inputs. What the Lopez Group’s ₱50‑billion decision says about First Gen—and ABS‑CBN When Prime Infrastructure Capital Inc., led by Enrique Razon Jr., completed its ₱50‑billion acquisition of a controlling stake in First Gen’s gas business , it was widely framed as a landmark energy transaction. Less discussed—but no less consequential—was what the Lopez Group chose to do next with the proceeds. Rather than channeling the windfall toward shoring up ABS‑CBN Corp. , the group’s financially strained media arm, the Lopezes effectively recycled that capital back into the energy sector , partnering again with Prime Infra—this time in pumped‑storage hydropower projects that will take year...

We’ve been blogging for free. If you enjoy our content, consider supporting us! Disclaimer:  This is for informational purposes and is  not  investment advice. Figures are taken from company disclosures and exchange data; valuation ratios include the author’s calculations based on cited inputs. STI Education Systems Holdings, Inc. (STI) posted a solid first‑half performance for fiscal year 2025–2026, underscoring the group’s ability to translate enrollment scale, pricing discipline, and tight cost management into resilient earnings, even as quarterly results normalized following an exceptionally strong start to the school year. For the six months ended December 31, 2025, STI reported net income of ₱1.08 billion , up 18% year‑on‑year , while earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) rose 13% to ₱1.55 billion , reflecting sustained operating momentum across its nationwide education network.  A Normalized Quarter After a Front‑Loaded Start...

We’ve been blogging for free. If you enjoy our content, consider supporting us! Disclaimer:  This is for informational purposes and is  not  investment advice. Figures are taken from company disclosures and exchange data; valuation ratios include the author’s calculations based on cited inputs. By any conventional yardstick, the bidding for the Semirara coal operating contracts later this year looks like a heavyweight contest. The Department of Energy (DOE) has made it clear that the contracts—covering the country’s most strategic coal resource—will be awarded on the basis of qualifications, not simply on price. The incumbent, Semirara Mining and Power Corp. (SMPC), retains a formidable advantage as operator, while deep‑pocketed energy groups such as Meralco’s power arm and other integrated utilities have openly signaled interest. Yet in auctions shaped by regulation, timing, and coalition‑building, outright scale is not always the only path to relevance. Quietly, one mid...

We’ve been blogging for free. If you enjoy our content, consider supporting us! Disclaimer:  This is for informational purposes and is  not  investment advice. Figures are taken from company disclosures and exchange data; valuation ratios include the author’s calculations based on cited inputs. By the early 2000s, DMCI Holdings looked like a company stuck between eras—too big to be just a contractor, too cyclical to promise steady returns. Two decades later, it has become one of the Philippine market’s most reliable cash machines. This is the story of how it happened.   For much of its early life as a listed company, DMCI Holdings Inc. (DMC) looked like many Philippine conglomerates: engineering‑led, asset‑heavy, and cyclical. Its core construction business delivered prestige and technical credibility, but earnings were volatile and capital‑intensive. Dividends, while present, were never the main reason to own the stock. That changed over the past two decades. By 202...

  We’ve been blogging for free. If you enjoy our content, consider supporting us! Disclaimer:  This is for informational purposes and is  not  investment advice. Figures are taken from company disclosures and exchange data; valuation ratios include the author’s calculations based on cited inputs. By most conventional measures, SM Prime Holdings Inc. (SMPH) has done almost everything right in 2025. Earnings rose to ₱48.8 billion , margins expanded despite flat revenues, leverage remained manageable, and cash flows from malls continued to exhibit enviable stability. Yet the stock price tells a different story. At around ₱21–22 per share , SMPH trades far below its pre‑pandemic highs and has failed to meaningfully re‑rate despite record earnings. This divergence between operational strength and market valuation raises a deeper question: what exactly does the market want SMPH to be now? The answer, increasingly, is yield . A Market That Has Moved On For years, SMPH was ...