the Outsider - PSE Points to Ponder

We’ve been blogging for free. If you enjoy our content, consider supporting us! Disclaimer:  This is for informational purposes and is  not  investment advice. Figures are taken from company disclosures and exchange data; valuation ratios include the author’s calculations based on cited inputs. Investors love a simple story, and Panasonic Manufacturing Philippines Corporation (PMPC) gave the market a very tempting one in 2025: a big cash dividend — ₱0.7393 per share , paid in June—right in the middle of a year when operating conditions were anything but smooth. But in dividend investing, the important question is rarely “how big was the last payout?” The real question is: what in the latest results suggests the dividend can be sustained (or even raised) without quietly draining the company’s future? PMPC’s 17‑Q for the nine months ended December 31, 2025, offers some useful clues. 1) A dividend is only as strong as the cash behind it The most encouraging sign for divi...

  We’ve been blogging for free. If you enjoy our content, consider supporting us! Disclaimer:  This is for informational purposes and is  not  investment advice. Figures are taken from company disclosures and exchange data; valuation ratios include the author’s calculations based on cited inputs. In REIT investing, there’s a familiar reflex: hear “property-for-share swap,” then brace for dilution. New shares mean more mouths to feed. Unless the new assets bring enough cash flow to keep dividends per share (DPS) rising, the transaction can feel like a shell game—bigger company, same slice (or smaller) for each investor. Yet RL Commercial REIT (RCR) has been trying to tell a different story—one where infusion-driven growth can still be dividend-accretive , even with an enlarged share base. The clue isn’t buried in a valuation report or a cap rate debate. It’s in the simplest, most investor-facing metric of all: the dividend per share history . The setup: A nine‑mall in...

  We’ve been blogging for free. If you enjoy our content, consider supporting us! Disclaimer:  This is for informational purposes and is  not  investment advice. Figures are taken from company disclosures and exchange data; valuation ratios include the author’s calculations based on cited inputs. By any textbook of corporate finance, Ayala Land’s share buyback should have been a powerful statement. The company has essentially exhausted its ₱28 billion appropriation , having repurchased 1,105,204,046 shares for a cumulative ₱27,998,838,069 —a near‑complete deployment of the program. Yet the market’s verdict is blunt: ALI continues to trade around the low ₱20s , a neighborhood it hasn’t called home in years, with recent quotes near ₱21.30 .  That disconnect—between aggressive capital return and a stubbornly weak share price—tells you something important: the market is not doubting ALI’s willingness to support its stock. It is questioning the durability and qualit...

  We’ve been blogging for free. If you enjoy our content, consider supporting us! Disclaimer:  This is for informational purposes and is  not  investment advice. Figures are taken from company disclosures and exchange data; valuation ratios include the author’s calculations based on cited inputs. The seduction of “growth” when you’re already cash-rich There is a recurring corporate temptation that shows up most clearly in consumer giants: once the core franchise throws off reliable cash, management begins to treat that cash as a mandate to do something big . Often that “something” becomes acquisitions—new brands, new geographies, new narratives—frequently justified as “growth,” even when the acquired businesses are structurally low-return or outright loss-making.  Jollibee Foods Corporation (JFC) offers a timely cautionary case study. By its own disclosures, JFC delivered strong topline momentum through September 2025 and expanded its global store footprint, wit...

  We’ve been blogging for free. If you enjoy our content, consider supporting us! Disclaimer:  This is for informational purposes and is  not  investment advice. Figures are taken from company disclosures and exchange data; valuation ratios include the author’s calculations based on cited inputs. By the numbers, every “dividend machine” has a hidden engine. The question is whether that engine runs on operating cash—or on wishful thinking. Dividend investors love simple stories: strong brands, steady profits, a board that “always pays.” But the market’s most expensive lesson is that dividends don’t come from the income statement. They come from cash—and specifically from cash generated by the core business. That distinction is now the difference between holding a yield stock with confidence and holding one with crossed fingers. Consider RFM and Monde Nissin—two consumer names that can appear, on the surface, to offer what income investors crave: regular payouts and re...

  We’ve been blogging for free. If you enjoy our content, consider supporting us! Disclaimer:  This is for informational purposes and is  not  investment advice. Figures are taken from company disclosures and exchange data; valuation ratios include the author’s calculations based on cited inputs. If you’re buying MREIT for dividends, the latest numbers deliver the kind of comfort income investors like: a growing rental base, steady cash generation, and distributions that track distributable income almost to the penny. But therein lies the catch. When a REIT is already paying out nearly everything it can , future dividend-per-share growth becomes less about “discipline” and more about whether the business can expand distributable income per share —after interest costs, lease-linked expenses, and dilution.  A strong quarter—driven by assets, not alchemy MREIT’s nine-month story to September 30, 2025, is straightforward: bigger portfolio, higher revenues. Total rev...

We’ve been blogging for free. If you enjoy our content, consider supporting us! Disclaimer:  This is for informational purposes and is  not  investment advice. Figures are taken from company disclosures and exchange data; valuation ratios include the author’s calculations based on cited inputs.   If Victorias Milling Company (VMC) were a simple “revenue story,” the latest quarter would have been a celebratory one: consolidated sales climbed to ₱3.235 billion , up from ₱2.511 billion a year earlier.  But the market doesn’t pay dividends in revenues—it pays them in durable margins and cash flow . And this quarter’s defining feature is not growth; it is compression . VMC’s earnings print shows why. Despite higher sales, net income fell to ₱161.5 million from ₱367.9 million , and EPS dropped to ₱0.03 from ₱0.07 . In short: the company moved more product, but kept less profit per peso sold. That is the telltale signature of a margin squeeze—exactly the kind that of...