the Outsider - PSE Points to Ponder

  (Based on PLDT Inc.’s SEC Form 17‑Q for the nine months ended Sept. 30, 2025, filed Nov. 11, 2025; plus public disclosures on Kayana through Jan. 28, 2026. Not investment advice.) We’ve been blogging for free. If you enjoy our content, consider supporting us! Disclaimer:  This is for informational purposes and is  not  investment advice. Figures are taken from company disclosures and exchange data; valuation ratios include the author’s calculations based on cited inputs. PART 3 — “Kayana: The Data Bet That Could Protect (or Unlock) Dividend Growth” If Part 2 is about spending on towers, fiber, and 5G, then Part 3 is about the quieter bet: data-driven monetization —and that is where Kayana Solutions, Inc. enters the story. Kayana describes itself as a “data-powered digital experience company,” backed by PLDT, Meralco, and MPIC, built to transform customer engagement using data + GenAI , payments , and identity . Its offerings include “Customer 360,” an AI “digital ...

(Based on PLDT Inc.’s SEC Form 17‑Q for the nine months ended Sept. 30, 2025, filed Nov. 11, 2025; plus public disclosures on Kayana through Jan. 28, 2026. Not investment advice.) We’ve been blogging for free. If you enjoy our content, consider supporting us! Disclaimer:  This is for informational purposes and is  not  investment advice. Figures are taken from company disclosures and exchange data; valuation ratios include the author’s calculations based on cited inputs. PART 2 — “Where the Cash Goes: Network, Fiber, 5G—and the Price of Staying Ahead” A dividend investor’s favorite question is not “How much did they pay?” but “What will they need to spend to keep paying?” On that front, PLDT’s 17‑Q reads like a familiar telecom playbook: spend heavily now to defend the network, monetize data, and keep enterprise growth moving. The headline number: ₱52.1 billion spent on purchases of property and equipment (including capitalized interest) in 9M25—up 7% year‑on‑year. In c...

  (Based on PLDT Inc.’s SEC Form 17‑Q for the nine months ended Sept. 30, 2025, filed Nov. 11, 2025; plus public disclosures on Kayana through Jan. 28, 2026. Not investment advice.) We’ve been blogging for free. If you enjoy our content, consider supporting us! Disclaimer:  This is for informational purposes and is  not  investment advice. Figures are taken from company disclosures and exchange data; valuation ratios include the author’s calculations based on cited inputs. PART 1 — “The Dividend Machine Still Runs… But It’s Feeling the Heat” There’s a simple reason PLDT (TEL) continues to command attention among income investors: cash generation . In the first nine months of 2025, TEL produced ₱75.8 billion in operating cash flow—up 11% year‑on‑year—while cash dividends paid were about ₱20.6 billion , essentially steady versus the prior year. That is the kind of coverage that reassures dividend holders: the payout isn’t being “imagined” into existence; it’s being fu...

  We’ve been blogging for free. If you enjoy our content, consider supporting us! Disclaimer:  This is for informational purposes and is  not  investment advice. Figures are taken from company disclosures and exchange data; valuation ratios include the author’s calculations based on cited inputs. There are prices that trade like numbers—and prices that trade like messages . In late January, ₱7.40 became the latter for RL Commercial REIT (RCR) after its sponsor, Robinsons Land Corporation (RLC) , authorized a secondary block sale of 945,946,000 RCR shares at ₱7.40 per share —about ₱7.0 billion in gross proceeds, placed with institutional investors. On the surface, it’s just a sponsor reshuffling its holdings. Underneath, it’s a rare moment of real-money price discovery : a level at which large buyers were willing to absorb size, and the sponsor was willing to let it go.  So the market’s inevitable question—especially for traders who live on reference points—is...

  We’ve been blogging for free. If you enjoy our content, consider supporting us! Disclaimer:  This is for informational purposes and is  not  investment advice. Figures are taken from company disclosures and exchange data; valuation ratios include the author’s calculations based on cited inputs. By the time RL Commercial REIT (RCR) closed the third quarter of 2025, it had become something rare in the Philippine REIT space: a truly multi-asset platform with a portfolio that now spans both offices and malls across key urban nodes. And yet, buried inside the good news is the market’s perennial discomfort with REIT growth: dilution first, accretion later—if management executes.   A ₱30.7B infusion—and the unavoidable math of dilution The defining event of the quarter was RCR’s nine-mall infusion via a property-for-share swap valued at ₱30.6749 billion , paid by issuing 3.834 billion new shares (SEC approval dated September 5, 2025 ). That transaction dramatica...

  We’ve been blogging for free. If you enjoy our content, consider supporting us! Disclaimer: This is for informational purposes and is not investment advice. Figures are taken from company disclosures and exchange data; valuation ratios include the author’s calculations based on cited inputs. A liquor distributor with momentum—at least in the numbers The Keepers Holdings’ 9M 2025 report (ending Sept. 30, 2025 ) reads like a company still riding demand rather than being dragged by it: net sales rose 14.4% to ₱13.39B , and net income increased 12.0% to ₱2.43B . Management pins the growth on a 16% increase in cases sold , with Brandy doing the heavy lifting— about 80% of sales value and 84% of volume . For investors who view KEEPR as a “steady compounder” in consumer staples distribution, those are the kinds of broad-based numbers that justify attention. But as always, the headline hides the seams—and this quarter’s seams show up in margin texture, cost creep, and FX noise.  ...

We’ve been blogging for free. If you enjoy our content, consider supporting us! For years, the market has been happy to treat RFM as a steady, cash-generating staples company that also knows how to return money to shareholders—sometimes aggressively. The proof is in the paper trail: in 2025 alone, the company declared ₱1.5 billion in total dividends (₱0.44517/share), a headline-friendly yield that made income investors sit up straight.  But a subtler—and more consequential—story is now emerging from the footnotes and forward-looking statements: Joey Concepcion, the country’s best-known entrepreneurship advocate, is steering RFM toward a more overtly entrepreneurial posture in capital allocation—spending on capacity and modernization rather than leaving too much cash parked in securities.   From “Treasury Mindset” to “Founder Mindset” Concepcion has long worn two hats: the CEO of RFM and the founding trustee behind Go Negosyo , the country’s most prominent pro-entrepreneurs...