the Outsider - PSE Points to Ponder

We’ve been blogging for free. If you enjoy our content, consider supporting us! There’s a certain poetic symmetry to the Lopez group’s year: on one hand, First Gen’s landmark ₱50‑billion sale of a controlling stake in its gas platform to Enrique Razon’s Prime Infra has been framed as a strategic pivot—cashing out of mature gas assets to fund a cleaner, geothermal-heavy future. On the other, Rockwell Land’s ₱21.6‑billion acquisition of control over Alabang Town Center reads like a bold bet on premium retail scale and long-horizon redevelopment. Put them side by side and a provocative question practically writes itself: Is this where the “₱50B windfall” will ultimately go—straight into a mega-mall acquisition that Rockwell can’t comfortably carry on its own?   To be clear, the ₱50B is not Rockwell’s money . It’s First Gen’s proceeds from a transaction involving gas plants and an LNG terminal, with First Gen explicitly pointing to renewable energy expansion (notably geothermal) as ...

We’ve been blogging for free. If you enjoy our content, consider supporting us! In every property cycle, prices don’t just move on earnings—they move on what investors believe those earnings are . In the Philippine listed-property trio of SM Prime (SMPH) , Ayala Land (ALI) , and Megaworld (MEG) , the post‑peak story is a study in cash‑flow durability and balance‑sheet optics . What’s striking is not simply that all three are below their highs—it’s that SMPH’s decline has been the shallowest , suggesting the market treated it as the most “defensive” of the group.  Let’s start with the scoreboard. Based on widely-referenced price histories, MEG hit ₱6.54 on July 15, 2019 , and SMPH peaked at ₱43.35 on January 3, 2020 —both cited as all‑time highs by TradingView. For ALI , a readily cited peak reference from MarketScreener is a 10‑year high of ₱53.85 (MarketScreener labels it as a 10‑year extreme rather than explicitly “all‑time”). As of late December 2025, pricing snapshots: MEG tr...

We’ve been blogging for free. If you enjoy our content, consider supporting us! Market Commentary — A cautious read on Alliance Global Group (AGI) Alliance Global Group’s latest disclosures offer a familiar comfort to shareholders: profits are up, margins are wider, and the company is still buying back shares . Yet caution is warranted. In the near term, AGI’s buyback may serve more as a shock absorber than a launchpad, as the group also navigates heavy investment spending, rising net debt, and corporate actions that can complicate sentiment. Earnings strength is real—but the headline is not “pure” For the nine months ended September 30, 2025, AGI reported ₱24.85 billion in net profit (+23.9% YoY) and ₱17.39 billion net profit attributable to owners (+34.0% YoY) —a strong set of results on paper. EBITDA rose to ₱46.35 billion , and the company’s reported margins expanded meaningfully. But that same report also shows revenues and income down 11.3% year-on-year to ₱143.37 billion ....

  How A. Soriano Corp. evolved from 2019 to September 2025—and kept paying shareholders through a volcano, a pandemic, and volatile markets We’ve been blogging for free. If you enjoy our content, consider supporting us! MANILA — A. Soriano Corporation (ANSCOR) doesn’t fit the stereotype of a headline-chasing conglomerate. It’s a quiet holding company: part industrial operator, part luxury tourism owner, part financial investor. Yet from 2019 through September 2025 , it has done something that makes income-focused investors sit up: it kept returning meaningful cash dividends even as the economy whipsawed from pre-pandemic expansion to lockdown collapse to reopening euphoria—and then to a new era of rate shocks and geopolitical uncertainty.  Behind that steadiness is a simple playbook: cash-generating operating businesses to anchor the base, a diversified investment portfolio to amplify cycles, a conservative balance sheet to avoid forced selling, and disciplined capital allo...

We’ve been blogging for free. If you enjoy our content, consider supporting us! There’s a comforting myth that public shareholders always have options: hold, sell, wait for better value, vote, pressure management. In ordinary industries, that’s often true. In port concessions , it’s closer to fiction. Here, the core assets are not factories or patents but government-granted operating rights , governed by contracts, policy, and regulators. ATI itself underscores that its authority to manage and operate key ports rests on its contracts and the administrative rules of government agencies—particularly the Philippine Ports Authority (PPA) and other regulators. In that setting, the company’s long-term survival depends less on quarterly earnings and more on maintaining state confidence that the operator can deliver national logistics outcomes. That is why the strategic conclusion—unpleasant for purists but obvious to realists—is this: Eusebio Tanco has to partner with Maharlika . Not becaus...

We’ve been blogging for free. If you enjoy our content, consider supporting us! When Asian Terminals, Inc. (ATI) went into a voluntary trading suspension, and headlines quickly shifted to a ₱36-per-share tender offer tied to a Maharlika Investment Corp. (MIC) entry, the market’s real debate wasn’t just about price—it was about time . Time to lock in value for public shareholders, and time to de-risk a business whose most valuable assets are, in the end, government-granted contracts .  MIC’s planned purchase—reported as up to 11.2% of ATI alongside a tender offer covering public float shares—has an explicit objective: voluntary delisting . And delisting changes the fairness calculus: shareholders aren’t just selling a stock; they’re being offered a regulated exit from an increasingly illiquid public market as the free float shrinks below listing thresholds.  Fairness is not just a premium—it’s a package Tender offer “fairness” is usually judged by three factors: (1) price ...

We’ve been blogging for free. If you enjoy our content, consider supporting us! By mid-December, DDMP REIT (PSE: DDMPR ) holders are used to a familiar ritual: a dividend declaration that sets the stage for a January record date and a February payout. Last year, that rhythm was clear—DDMPR’s board approved a regular cash dividend on December 13, 2024 , with payment on February 14, 2025 .  This year, the ritual has been interrupted. As of December 17, 2025 , there is no visible declared upcoming dividend for DDMPR in commonly referenced dividend trackers, and the PSE’s dividend listings excerpted for upcoming distributions do not show a DDMPR entry. The last clearly documented DDMPR dividend event remains the board-approved cash dividend dated September 30, 2025 , paid November 26, 2025 In markets, silence is rarely neutral —especially when investors have been conditioned to expect a quarterly paycheck. Why the Delay Feels Bigger Than It Is REITs trade on a promise: predictable cas...