the Outsider - PSE Points to Ponder

The water utility’s latest quarter points to a familiar Philippine infrastructure equation: resilient demand, heavy capital spending, meaningful leverage, and dividends that can run ahead of near-term free cash flow. Maynilad Water Services Inc. delivered the kind of first-quarter numbers that normally reassure investors in a defensive utility. Revenue rose 6.2% to ₱9.09 billion in the three months ended March 31, while net income climbed 10.3% to ₱3.99 billion , helped by higher billed volumes, tariff support, and a broader customer base. The company also kept improving service indicators, with billed volume up to 136.1 million cubic meters , non-revenue water down to 30.7% at period-end, and service coverage inching higher.  Yet the quarter also revived an older Manila market archetype — the infrastructure company that pays while it builds. Beneath the headline earnings growth sat a capital structure and cash-flow profile that increasingly resembles PLDT Inc. in its heaviest ...

  In Philippine boardroom warfare, the concept didn’t arrive with Federico “Piki” Lopez. It had an earlier, rougher incarnation in the battle for PLDT, where Antonio “Tonyboy” Cojuangco used a poison pill not simply to fend off raiders, but to make himself the indispensable counterparty in any serious bid for control.   The term is back in circulation because of First Gen Corp., where the Lopez family’s internal feud has dragged a modern version of the tactic into public view. First Gen confirmed in April that its agreements with Enrique Razon Jr.’s Prime Infrastructure contain change-of-management-control provisions that would let Prime Infra force a buyout of First Gen’s hydropower stake at a 25% discount if Piki and his team were removed during a defined period; First Gen added that the gas-plant stake could also be sold at the same discount if the clause were exercised. First Gen said those provisions were requested by Prime Infra and reflected the counterparty’s confide...

  The Asian Financial Crisis did not merely humble the conspicuous losers. It also forced one of Philippine business’s eventual winners into an extended and rather unsentimental workout: raise equity, sell what can be sold, renegotiate what cannot, and, if necessary, surrender even the trophy asset. In Philippine business memory, the aftermath of the 1997–98 Asian Financial Crisis is often told through the ordeals of the most visible dynasties and the most politically charged conglomerates. Yet the period was just as revealing for another camp: the First Pacific–Metro Pacific group led in the Philippines by Manuel V. Pangilinan . The group did not implode. But it most certainly bent. Metro Pacific Corporation (MPC) , then First Pacific’s Philippine flagship outside PLDT and a few other holdings, suffered a genuine balance-sheet squeeze as the peso weakened, interest rates rose, and foreign-currency borrowings suddenly looked less like clever leverage than an expensive misjudgment....

  We’ve been blogging for free. If you enjoy our content, consider supporting us! Disclaimer:  This is for informational purposes and is  not  investment advice. Figures are taken from company disclosures and exchange data; valuation ratios include the author’s calculations based on cited inputs. There’s a familiar scene in every telecom boardroom: a CFO pointing to a clean dividend slide while the network team flips to a map full of red zones—coverage gaps, congestion pockets, fiber buildouts, and the next wave of equipment refresh. The dividend slide always looks tidy. The map never does. PLDT’s FY2025 results delivered a dividend story that sounds comforting: the company generated ₱98.738B in operating cash flow and spent ₱60.336B on capex, leaving a healthy cushion before shareholder payouts. On paper, that’s the kind of year that lets management talk about “sustainability” with a straight face—especially with EBITDA at ₱111.231B and an ~52% margin that stil...

  We’ve been blogging for free. If you enjoy our content, consider supporting us! Disclaimer:  This is for informational purposes and is  not  investment advice. Figures are taken from company disclosures and exchange data; valuation ratios include the author’s calculations based on cited inputs. PLDT’s board has approved a final cash dividend of ₱46 per share , bringing total dividends for 2025 to ₱94 per share and framing the payout as 60% of Telco Core EPS —a clear signal that management is prioritizing policy discipline over headline yield. The adjustment comes as the telco’s operating story remains broadly stable, but the earnings quality underneath shows strain. For full-year 2025, PLDT reported net service revenues of ₱196.2 billion (+1%) and EBITDA of ₱111.2 billion (+3%) with a 52% EBITDA margin , reflecting resilience in data and broadband that now account for 85% of service revenues .  Yet reported net income fell 7% to ₱30.0 billion , reflecting ...

PLDT Inc. ( TEL ) is under heavy pressure to (1.) invest in fiber broadband and 5G wireless networks and (2.) still reduce leverage and (3.) distributes dividend to shareholders, the “ triple threat position. “ No less that the President of the Philippines on its State of the Nation Address had called on TEL and Globe Telecom, Inc. ( GLO ) to improve their services. The President was telling the telcos that it is just a matter of capital infusion and that the telcos have to look for it to fund service improvements. As of June 30, 2020 TEL’s debt had increased 22% to 235.3 Billion Pesos from the end of December 31, 2019 of 192.6 Billion Pesos. The already elevated debt level gives TEL less flexibility to raise capital through debts. Judging by the results of the 1H 2020, cash generations from operations will just be enough to fund capital expenditures of 70 Billion Pesos if TEL will stick to its plan of spending around 70 Billion Pesos for capital expenditures on n...