the Outsider - PSE Points to Ponder

  The Philippines’ biggest coal miner entered 2026 with a familiar strength — profit — and an unfamiliar tell: it had to lean on bank funding just as its usual first-half dividend window passed without a payout. Semirara Mining and Power Corp. reported ₱3.82 billion in first-quarter net income, down 12% from a year earlier, while cash on hand more than doubled to ₱10.58 billion . But the stronger cash balance came with a catch: the company also drew ₱5.0 billion in new loan proceeds during the quarter, even as receivables swelled to ₱10.08 billion and inventories climbed to ₱18.69 billion .  That combination — robust earnings, weakening cash conversion, and fresh borrowing — is not the profile investors have grown used to from Semirara. For years, the company has been treated by many local shareholders as a kind of cyclical cash machine: a miner-power producer with a habit of sending money back in the spring and, often, again later in the year. Its own investor-relations ...

  A coal-and-power cash machine is still throwing off money. Just not quite as extravagantly as before. There is a difference in business between earning less and feeling poorer. Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, the Philippines’ coal baron with captive power plants strapped to its side, managed both in 2025. Reported net income fell to about ₱13.1bn , down a third from the year before. More tellingly, operating cash flow slid to roughly ₱16.4bn from ₱27.5bn —a drop of about 40% . In a company whose investment case has long rested on fat, frequent cash distributions, that is the number that stings. Profits flatter; cash pays dividends.  That distinction matters because Semirara is not merely a cyclical resource stock. It has become, in the minds of many local investors, a sort of irregular annuity: a company that pays in spring, and often surprises again in autumn. In 2025 , it still declared dividends of ₱13.8bn , lower than the ₱25.5bn distributed in 2024 but still ge...

The Department of Energy deserves credit for insisting on a competitive rebidding of the Semirara coal blocks instead of granting an outright extension to Semirara Mining and Power Corporation’s current coal operating contract, which expires in July 2027. The DOE has made clear that the Semirara area will be included in the 2026 coal bid round, and that awards will be based on technical, financial, legal, and work-program qualifications rather than on a simple highest-bid-wins formula.  That is the right policy. But good policy does not guarantee intense competition. The more difficult question is whether many serious players will actually want to commit capital to a coal asset at a time when the economics of coal are no longer what they were just a few years ago. Semirara’s own results suggest the answer may be more complicated than the optics of an open auction imply. Coal is clearly no longer in the 2022–2024 supercycle conditions. In 2025, Semirara Mining and Power Corporation ...

We’ve been blogging for free. If you enjoy our content, consider supporting us! Disclaimer:  This is for informational purposes and is  not  investment advice. Figures are taken from company disclosures and exchange data; valuation ratios include the author’s calculations based on cited inputs. Wars don’t just move armies—they move molecules . And when energy trade routes start pricing in disruption, governments quickly rediscover a political constant: nothing tests public patience faster than rising electricity prices . The ongoing US–Iran conflict has heightened uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz—one of the world’s most important oil chokepoints—raising the risk premium on delivered crude and LNG through a mix of shipping hesitation, security risk, and insurance repricing. For the Philippines, the consequence is immediate: when imported fuels reprice higher, the government’s room for policy experiments narrows. That shifts the calculus around a seemingly technical ...