Dennis Uy’s CNVRG Looks Oversold: Falling ARPU and Heavy Capex Cloud a Profitable, Cash-Generative Fiber Business
The market has stopped treating Converge as a fast-growing broadband compounder and started pricing it like a maturing telco. That de-rating is understandable—but with strong fibre assets, high margins, positive operating cash flow and manageable leverage, the sell-off may have gone too far. There are two ways to lose money in a growth stock. One is for the company to fail. The other is for the story to change. Converge ICT Solutions has not failed. Far from it. The company remains one of the Philippines’ most important fixed-broadband infrastructure owners, with a nationwide fibre network, strong operating cash generation, high margins, modest leverage and a fast-growing enterprise arm. Yet its share price has behaved as if something more terminal has happened. The reason is subtler: CNVRG has stopped looking like a pristine “fast-growing pure-play fibre broadband compounder” and has started looking like a maturing broadband operator wrestling with falling ARPU, heavier capital expend...