the Outsider - PSE Points to Ponder

  By any reasonable yardstick, DITO is still far from break‑even. But the path is not unknowable—it’s arithmetic, capital discipline, and execution. The company’s 3Q25 filing lays out the challenge in stark numbers: nine‑month net loss of ₱24.93B , EBIT (operating loss) of ₱9.73B , and EBITDA of ₱1.565B —up 112% year‑on‑year, yet nowhere near enough to absorb heavy depreciation (₱11.47B) , interest (₱12.82B) and FX losses (₱2.23B) . On that math, DITO would need roughly ₱26–27B of EBITDA over nine months —or ~₱35–36B annualized —to hit net break‑even today.  Scale the cash engine—fast, and with margin integrity. No telco breaks even on hope; it breaks even on EBITDA . With nine‑month revenues at ₱14.9B and an EBITDA margin of ~ 10.5% , the cash engine is underpowered. The first lever is scale and margin: push data monetization (already 86% of service revenue) while rebuilding ARPU (mobile blended down to ₱100 , FWA up modestly to ₱306 ). Even at a healthier 25–30% EBITDA...

TV5’s termination of its partnership with ABS-CBN over a ₱1 billion payment demand exposes deep financial cracks. With ₱13 billion in payables and cash reserves down to ₱718 million, the Lopez Group must act fast—using its ₱50 billion windfall from First Gen’s sale to Enrique Razon—to prevent a collapse that could damage its entire credit reputation. When TV5 , backed by the Manny Pangilinan group , pulled the plug on its partnership with ABS-CBN and demanded a ₱1 billion payment , it wasn’t just a broken deal—it was a warning shot. A signal that the financial cracks in ABS-CBN are widening, and the tremors could shake the entire Lopez Group . The numbers are stark: ABS-CBN’s SEC filing shows ₱13 billion in trade and other payables , a ₱11 billion working capital deficit , and cash reserves down to ₱718 million . These aren’t minor hiccups—they’re existential threats. When a major partner like TV5 walks away over unpaid obligations, others will take notice. Talent agencies, event venue...

The Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC) has approved the National Grid Corporation of the Philippines’ (NGCP) ₱89.98-billion Batangas–Mindoro 500-kilovolt interconnection and backbone project , a landmark initiative that will connect Mindoro to the Luzon grid and reshape the island’s power dynamics. Under the ERC directive, Stage 1 of the project must be completed by September 30, 2027 , with Stage 2 targeted for December 31, 2030 . Once operational, Mindoro will cease to be an off-grid missionary area, enabling access to cheaper and more stable electricity from the national grid. Impact on DMCI Power DMCI Power, the exclusive off-grid supplier in Oriental Mindoro, currently serves the province through diesel and bunker plants under long-term contracts. In 2024 , the company sold 104.8 GWh in Mindoro, generating an estimated ₱1.62 billion in revenue at an average tariff of ₱15.5/kWh . Analysts warn that the interconnection will erode DMCI Power’s competitive advantage : Luzon grid r...

  PLDT’s third-quarter filing paints a picture of resilience under pressure—a company holding its ground in a shifting telecom landscape, yet not without fault lines that investors should watch closely. The Cracks: First, the erosion of profitability is hard to ignore. Net income slid 11% year-on-year to ₱25.1 billion, weighed down by higher financing costs , a swing to foreign exchange losses , and thinner derivative gains. These non-operating headwinds shaved earnings despite steady service revenue growth. Telco core income—a key metric for dividend policy—fell 5% , signaling that payout sustainability could tighten if interest rates stay elevated. Wireless, once PLDT’s crown jewel, is showing strain. Revenues dipped 3% , dragged by double-digit declines in voice (-10%) and SMS (-7%) , as consumers flock to OTT apps. Even mobile broadband plunged 31% , underscoring the fading appeal of pocket WiFi. Subscriber churn is creeping up, and prepaid ARPU softened. These trends hint at...

Hyper Dynamic Corporation, Jollibee Foods Corporation’s (JFC) largest shareholder, has been quietly executing a series of open-market purchases that speak volumes about its confidence—and its strategy. From 41.65% ownership in June to 43.29% by December , Hyper Dynamic’s stake grew through incremental trades , not blockbuster deals. The Numbers Tell the Story: August 5–6: Hyper Dynamic acquired 32,000 shares at prices between ₱216.00 and ₱218.20 , lifting its holdings past 43.27% . August 26: Another 15,000 shares bought at ₱229.80–₱230.80 , pushing ownership to 485.05 million shares . December 2: Three trades totaling 11,000 shares at ₱187.50–₱187.90 , cementing its position at 43.29% . These purchases occurred during periods of price softness , suggesting opportunistic timing. For investors disillusioned by JFC’s ambitious global expansion and margin pressures, Hyper Dynamic’s steady buying provided a liquidity backstop . Sellers found a willing counterparty, preventing sharp ...

Strong enrollment and strategic partnerships keep PHINMA Education thriving, yet mounting losses in construction, property, and hospitality—and a ballooning debt load—raise tough questions about the company’s future and its share price stability. By the third quarter of 2025, PHINMA Corporation finds itself walking a tightrope between resilience and vulnerability. The company’s latest SEC filing paints a mixed picture: consolidated revenues slipped to ₱16.31 billion, down 4% from last year, while net income fell to ₱376 million. More troubling for shareholders, the parent company posted a net loss of ₱216 million, translating to a negative EPS of ₱0.64. The bright spot remains PHINMA Education , which delivered ₱5.27 billion in revenues and ₱1.42 billion in net income—a 26% jump year-on-year—thanks to record enrollment and strategic partnerships, including an ₱825-million infusion from Rise Edu Pte. Ltd. But this success is overshadowed by persistent weaknesses elsewhere. The Construct...

DoubleDragon Corporation’s latest quarterly filing paints a picture of ambition—and exposure. On the surface, the numbers sparkle: revenues surged 63% year-on-year to ₱10.5 billion for the first nine months of 2025, powered by real estate sales and steady rental streams. Net income held at ₱2.55 billion, barely up from last year, but enough to keep the optics positive. Scratch deeper, and the sheen dulls. Nearly 42% of that revenue came from unrealized fair value gains and tenant penalties—items that look good in a report but don’t pay the bills. Strip those out, and the core engine—rent and hotel operations—struggles to cover a ballooning interest tab. Financing costs doubled to ₱2.39 billion, and in the third quarter alone, they wiped out profits for common shareholders, leaving the parent with a ₱47.7 million loss. The balance sheet tells its own story: net debt hovers near ₱86 billion, cushioned by equity of ₱101 billion. Bonds issued this year lock in rates north of 7%, some as ...

SMFB widens profitability; CNPF and MONDE see compression; URC nudged lower; RFM holds firm despite cash flow squeeze The Philippines’ leading packaged food and beverage players posted mixed margin outcomes in their nine‑month 2025 results, highlighting how input-cost volatility, pricing discipline, and working‑capital choices are reshaping profitability across the sector. Sales growth was broadly positive, but margin trajectories diverged: San Miguel Food and Beverage (SMFB) expanded margins; Century Pacific Food (CNPF) and Monde Nissin (MONDE) saw compression; Universal Robina Corp. (URC) edged lower; and RFM Corp. preserved healthy margins while absorbing a hit to operating cash flows. Sales: Mid‑single to high‑single digit growth, with branded segments leading SMFB’s consolidated revenues rose 4% to ₱302.9 billion on resilient demand and brand execution across food, beer, and spirits—food up 7%, spirits up 7%, beer steady—supporting scale benefits into the third quarter. Man...

Century Pacific Food, Inc. (PSE: CNPF), one of the country’s leading branded food manufacturers, reported strong third-quarter results, with consolidated revenues and earnings accelerating on the back of robust branded segment growth. However, the company faces emerging financial and operational risks tied to margin compression, working capital strain, and export volatility. Earnings Surge Amid Branded Segment Strength For the nine months ended September 30, 2025, CNPF posted ₱61.79 billion in revenues , up 8.5% year-on-year , while net income rose 9.6% to ₱5.78 billion . Earnings per share climbed to ₱1.63 from ₱1.49 last year. Third-quarter performance was even stronger, with revenues jumping 14.9% to ₱22.07 billion and net income up 14.8% to ₱1.89 billion , signaling accelerating momentum in branded categories such as marine, meat, and dairy. Management attributed the gains to double-digit volume growth in branded products and improved consumer purchasing power amid stable ...